بیت‌کوین از مرز ۱۱۲ هزار دلار عبور کرد؛ معامله‌گران برای هفته داده‌ها آماده می‌شوند. چرخش بازار سولانا و دوج‌کوین را تقویت کرد.

وضعیت بازار ارزهای دیجیتال در نوسانات محدود

بیت‌کوین (BTC) روز دوشنبه در محدوده حدود ۱۱۱,۵۰۰ دلار نوسان می‌کرد و در یک بازه محدود حرکت می‌نمود، چرا که معامله‌گران در حال ارزیابی محرک‌های کلان اقتصادی برای یافتن نشانه‌هایی جهت موقعیت‌گیری بودند.
اتر (ETH) نزدیک به ۴,۳۱۲ دلار معامله می‌شد، ایکس‌آرپی (XRP) سطح ۲.۹۶ دلار را حفظ کرده بود، بی‌ان‌بی (BNB) در ۸۸۰ دلار قرار داشت و سولانا (SOL) به ۲۱۸ دلار صعود کرد. دوج‌کوین (DOGE) با رسیدن به ۲۴ سنت، سود هفتگی ۱۱.۶ درصدی خود را گسترش داد و از اکثر ارزهای دیجیتال عمده پیشی گرفت. این حرکت همزمان با آماده‌شدن اولین صندوق قابل معامله در بورس (ETF) میم‌کوین برای آغاز معاملات از روز پنجشنبه در ایالات متحده صورت گرفت.

حس محتاطانه حاکم بر بازار

حالت کلی بازار محتاطانه باقی ماند. آگوستین فان، رئیس بخش بینش در SignalPlus، در یادداشتی به کوین‌دسک گفت: «قیمت‌های ارز دیجیتال در طول هفته گذشته عمدتاً درجا زدند، اما بیت‌کوین به‌طور محسوسی هم در مقایسه با گروه همتایان خود و هم در مقایسه با سهام و طلای نقدی عقب افتاد.» وی به خریدهای softer در صندوق‌های trust دارایی‌های دیجیتال و کاهش فعالیت ورود سرمایه (on-ramp) در صرافی‌های متمرکز اشاره کرد.
فان افزود: «تصویر کوتاه‌مدت کمی چالش‌برانگیزتر به نظر می‌رسد و ما ترجیح می‌دهیم موضع دفاعی‌تری مطابق با داستان فصل سخت داشته باشیم. بر فشرده شدن حق بیمه‌های DAT و ریسک تحدب منفی (negative convexity) در روند نزولی نظارت داشته باشید.» او به بسیاری از خزانه‌های دارایی دیجیتال اشاره کرد که توسط شرکت‌های حاضر در بورس آمریکا در ماه‌های اخیر ایجاد شده‌اند.

عوامل کلان اقتصادی می‌توانند بن‌بست را بشکنند

لوکمان اوتونوگا، تحلیلگر ارشد بازار در FXTM، در یک ایمیل گفت: «بازارها در حال ورود به یک هفته تعیین‌کننده هستند، چرا که داده‌های ایالات متحده و تصمیمات بانک‌های مرکزی همگرا می‌شوند.»
او افزود که یک شاخص قیمت مصرف‌کننده (CPI) خنک‌تر و هرگونه اصلاح نزولی در آمار اشتغال، استدلال‌ها برای کاهش نرخ بهره توسط فدرال رزرو را تقویت کرده، دلار را تضعیف کرده و می‌تواند دارایی‌های جایگزین را تقویت کند. در مقابل، یک عدد CPI چسبنده (sticky) بر صبوری تأکید کرده و نوسان در across بازار ارز دیجیتال را افزایش خواهد داد.

انعکاس کشمکش در موقعیت‌گیری معامله‌گران

جاستین دانهان، بنیانگذار Poly Max Investment، گفت: «سرمایه‌گذاران بین تبدیل شدن به نزولی (bearish) و ریسک از دست دادن سود صعودی (upside)، یا خرید در اصلاحیه (buying the dip) در زمانی خیلی زود، گیر کرده‌اند.»
او خاطرنشان کرد که گفت‌وگوها درباره احتمال اضافه شدن استراتژی (Strategy) به شاخص S&P 500 کمرنگ شده، که به “میم خزانه داری شرکتی” ضربه زد، با این حال شرکت‌های عمومی اکنون حدود ۱ میلیون BTC در اختیار دارند.
دانهان گفت: «در تصویر بزرگتر، تثبیت بیت‌کوین در اطراف ۱۱۱ هزار دلار، برای باوران بلندمدت جایگاه مناسبی است. 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